Mind Of A Fund Manager

March 17th, 2010 by Ranjan No comments »

Sharing what Vinay Kulkarni, Senior Fund Manager at HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd. had to say while answering question on LiveMint in their chat section.

  • Attractive valuations backed by with good growth prospects for the banking stocks due to huge demand for financial products and services (driven by the high growth in the economy) both on corporate side as well as the retail side
  • Disciplined approach to stock picking and focus on risk mitigation through a diversified portfolio of stocks has been the key driver of fund performance
  • Negative on real estate sector. While the sector has long term demand drivers in place, valuations of stocks are not attractive. On telecom sector, we are underweight because of the competitive pricing pressures in the sector
  • Our approach is more bottom up (i.e stock specific) rather than a top down, sectoral approach. However, we were overweight on banking sector, pharma sector, IT sector and engineering sector
  • We are very cautious on the real estate sector and have zero exposure to this sector
  • Discomfort with high valuations kept us away from sectors such as real estate, power utilities and NBFCs and these sectors outperformed the market. Since HDFC TaxSaver was underweight these sector, it underperformed in 2007
  • By increasing disposable income in the hands of salaried class, the Budget has boosted the prospects of FMCG companies for the coming fiscal
  • The Budget has given a boost to consumption by increasing disposable income in the hands of the salaried class. Also the return of fiscal discipline should put a cap on inflation expectations. Government’s intent to be an enabler and ensure the right environment for private enterprise is also a boost for private sector entrpreneurs
  • Currently we see good prospects for banking sector led by robust credit growth in fy11, engineering and infrastructure sector based on revival of the capex cycle, IT sector as a play on global economic recovery, pharma sector based on company specific positive drivers and the fmcg sector based on the Budget which has left more disposable income in the hands of the salaried class.
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    Do you agree? Does this help you with stock selections?

    A question that he ignored was about index funds. The question asked was, “So does it make sense if i do my equity investment only through an index fund?”. It sure was an uncomfortable question for an active Fund Manager. As he couldn’t bring himself to say that index funds do outperform the actively managed mutual funds quite often.

    In any case, it’s good to know the mind of a Fund Manager.

    Welcome back! Join me on this journey to improving our financial IQ and sharing what we know. Updates at RSS feed or Email. And spread the word please Thank You!

    Coming Soon! A Personal Finance Workshop & Software "RupeeManager". Stay tuned

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    Planning For Your Child’s Future

    March 16th, 2010 by Ranjan No comments »

    That’s a common mistake that all parents do. I mean taking a unilateral decision on what our children are going to do in future. In the name of arranging a suitable life for our children, we often super impose our old ( and obsolete) preferences and biases.

    Your parents, they give you your life, but then they try to give you their life. (Chuck Palahniuk, Invisible Monsters, 1999)

    The best way, obviously, is to help the child discover their own interest area and to facilitate that process.

    Yesterday, I came across this press note from Aviva about a tool that help parents plan & calculate for their child’s higher education.

    Here’s the link to the tool.

    Aviva's EduCost

    Educost

    Aviva’s online insurance calculator, “Aviva Educost” helps to calculate the amount you would require to secure your child’s education. This application comes with 20 career options and a comprehensive list of 145 institutes across the world to choose from.

    More interesting is that it claims to factor in the rate of inflation, hidden education costs like coaching/preparatory fee and application charges, cost of living if your child moves to another city or abroad, along with course fees, Educost gives you a fairly accurate idea of the financial implication of your child’s higher education.

    I used the tool and got the following result:

    Shashwat Education Cost

    My Wishlist:

    I would have liked to understand the assumptions. For example what is the rate of inflation that has been factored in.

    Is that amount required as on today, or is the inflation corrected amount after “n” number of years when my son will be ready to join FTII. And what is the assumption there about the number of years when my son will join FTII.

    Conclusions:

    In any case, education is undoubtedly the best gift you can give to your child. And a bit of planning for the child’s education is a good thing to do. And this Educost tool is a useful application to help you chart out a blueprint.

    I also believe that life unfolds itself, and with utter disregard to your plans to achieve this or that. As Dwight D Eisenhower says:

    Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of ‘emergency’ is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning. (Eisenhower quotes)

    Update: I asked the person who sent me the press note about the assumptions and their response is as under:
    The assumptions are:

    i. Inflation @ 8%

    ii. Cost of Education : This refers to the current cost of Education or the course fee. The time period for calculation of this is 18yrs-Current age of child

    iii. Cost of Living : This refers to the current cost of Living in the city/country where the particular course will be taken. The time period for calculation of this is: (18yrs+ total yrs of course )-Current age of child

    iv. Cost of Preparation : This refers to the current cost of preparation for the course fee. The time period for calculation of this is: 18yrs-( Current age+2yrs)

    v. The total cost is the sum of all 3 above and shows the cost required when the child will be eligible to undergo the course i.e 18yrs

    Apart from this there is a standard disclaimer that the cost is illustrative and generic in nature and are based on the information collected from a random sample of public and private institutions in India.

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    How to Get Yourself A Financial Plan

    February 13th, 2010 by Ranjan 7 comments »

    Background:

    I always believe that life unfolds itself, and with utter disregard to your plans to achieve this or that. But I guess, Dwight D Eisenhower is more articulate. Read on.

    Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of ‘emergency’ is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning. (Eisenhower quotes)

    Financial Plan

    Now, the financial services sector in India is a hot area and I’ve written about it before. Link, Link2.

    I have written about InvestmentYogi and how their  goal is to promote a holistic financial planning approach to investing and managing wealth.

    I recently came across their online Financial Planning application and was immediately enthused to utilize the tool. After logging in, I found the user interface very cool and user friendly. Take a look:

    There is a sample plan that you can download to see what kind of report is given by this financial planning tool.

    Unless you have taken a bit of time to read the various things that your financial plan tells you, you will fail to see the importance of doing financial planning.

    But once you see the various reports about your assets and liabilities, suggested asset allocation plan, networth, strengths and weaknesses of your financial situation, you would be compelled to take corrective actions.

    I see it as this: What get’s measured, gets done correctly (atleast in future).

    More Points:

    A lot of people get phased out with numbers. Or may have difficulty understanding the numbers and the interpretations. That’s why, a Financial Planning exercise needs a trained consultant to help make sense of the numbers.

    I also believe that a planning exercise is a blue print for further discussion and brainstorming. You can do this with your family members. But a trained consultant would add a lot of perspectives, I believe.

    There are a whole lot of assumptions made to present the report. One should be able to understand those assumptions

    Based on the above two points, I think it makes sense to have a fee based financial planning exercise. InvestmentYogi is charging Rs 5K for their fee based plan and to me it looks like a invitation price. Professional Financial Planners normally charge Rs 10K and above.

    My Wishlist for a Financial Planning Tool:

    InvestmentYogi’s tool assumes that you know your risk profile. I think that the newbie user may not be aware of his own risk appetite. That’s why it’s a good idea to ask a few questions and let the app decide your risk profile.

    The assumptions they make in calculating various reports like the insurance cover required should also be clear to me. I would like to know the assumptions they make for all their calculations. I guess the fee based plan will give me that clarity.

    Conclusion:

    I really like this application and hope more and more people will use it. There’s the free version to start with. And if you can pay, I’m sure you would find value in your interaction with a trained consultant. (Okay, this is a general statement and I’m not recommending InvestmentYogi’s Consultants. Just recommending trained financial planners)

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    Dozen Rules For An Economist To Remember

    January 20th, 2010 by Ranjan No comments »

    I receive a newsletter from Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management Company and it’s worth reading. I guess you need to invest in their funds to get that newsletter.

    I found the “Rosenberg Dozen” in that newsletter and I am sharing that with you.

    David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff, has the following economist’s dozen of rules :

    1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
    2. Never be a slave to data, they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.
    3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom.
    4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
    5. No two cycles are ever the same.
    6. Never hide behind your model.
    7. Always seek out corroborating evidence.
    8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
    9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run.
    10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.
    11. Highlight the risks to your forecast.
    12. Get the (US) consumer right and everything will take care of itself.

    Interesting, No?

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    How to Sell ULIPs to Unsuspecting Customers

    January 19th, 2010 by Ranjan 5 comments »

    Recently, I was an unannounced visitor to my Aunt’s place where a bunch of people were explaining a financial product. It turned out that the people were Branch Head and Advisor of a private insurance company and they were selling a ULIP.

    My Aunt is a successful Doctor and seeing me, she immediately offloaded her burden of understanding the product to me.

    Even though I hate ULIPs, I pretended to be another uninformed customer. I listened to their articulate description of the benefits, their customer service policies, their ethics, etc. They said that the product will no longer be available after a week and they were interested in getting a good deal for their valued/high networth clients!

    Impressed, but I did have a question for them. What were the charges?

    The Branch Manager continued his rhetoric. Unlike other insurance companies they charge 0% premium allocation charge, he thundered.

    He gave me the pamphlet detailing other charges like policy administration charges, surrender charges, etc.

    I was intrigued by the 0% premium allocation charges and which normally ranges from 15-40% for other companies. I looked deeper for the fine print and here’s what I found.

    The policy administration charge which is normally Rs 60-100 for other companies was given in %age. The pamphlet said that for a premium band upto Rs 25000/-, it would be 2.50% per month of the ATP.

    ATP, I came to know was Annual Target Premium.

    What it meant was that 2.5*12=30% would be shaved off your investment as policy administration charge.

    So the marketing savvy private insurance company has been innovative in redesigning their product so that the noise about the premium allocation charge is addressed. And at the same time, adding back the charges in a new form!!

    Interesting, No? That’s why you need to be alert all the time. Do read Manish’s Top 10 tricks of mis-selling.

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