The Problem With Quality Information and Analysis

What problem can there be with quality information and analysis? Maybe there’s a problem with your mind! (This is a sample reaction that I may get for this post, but nevertheless…).

I urge you to read the following. It has been written by the most successful personal finance writer in India. I am not naming him bcoz that’s besides the point….

The following has been written in 2002.

….but now we get all the data/inputs we need. We too have grown in the last ten years. Today, with a 20 member team, we are the country’s largest……….

Unfortunately, the one thing that has not changed much is the investors’ understanding and knowledge of funds. On my television programmes and on my website, most of the queries display a desperate need for quality information and analysis.

Do you see any problem with that statement? One hint is that the above was written in 2002 and still sounds right.

I will wait for your thoughts. And yes, you can tell me that I have gone insane to find problems with such right sounding lines! :)

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Financial Experts: Post from the Past

I heard an expert on TV 4 years back and posted on my blog about my understanding of the language used. Here’s the verbatim expert speak. (I have changed the name of the company to ABC*:

ABC* is on a roll since the beginning of the second quarter of the current fiscal year. The stock witnessed sharp volatility in the last few days, though it gave up most of its gains. Technically, the stock is showing signs of good movement in the short term, but I think with a long term perspective, there are better bets available in the market.

I thought I understood that. But did I? Please help me what did the “expert” mean by those simple sentences. Let me try to deconstruct those simple lines…..

  1. On a roll: I think this stock is rocking, buy!
  2. since the beginning of the second quarter of the current fiscal year: Oh, it is a recent phenomena and what happened before that, we don’t know. Doubt!
  3. sharp volatility: looks scary.
  4. gave up most of its gains: Bad, I have to rethink whether the stock is rocking!
  5. showing signs of good movement: Good, after all it’s a Buy recommendation after all.
  6. with a long term, there are better bets: Doubt again about the stock.

The expert has done his job. He has told me nothing and still is called an “expert”. Moreover the leading daily also warns you that they are not responsible for your decisions.

I still can’t understand this language. Looks like I have made no progress in the last 4 years with this kind of language.

The Three Rules of Investments

Sounds simple. But have you followed the simple rules ever! :)

Excerpted from my website and was written 4 years ago. The link

Excerpts: Three rules of investment:

  1. Invest early
  2. Invest regularly
  3. Invest for long term and not short term

Invest Early :

The sooner you start the better. Start investing in small amounts, continuously for a long time, money grows due to the power of compounding. If you start investing when you are single you will be able to save maximum. The best policy is to start saving from the moment you begin earning.

Invest Regularly :

Develop the habit of adding to your recurring deposit / systematic investment plan of mutual fund / deferred annuity account on a regular basis, perhaps monthly or quarterly. By investing regularly with SIP of mutual funds you take advantage of a strategy called rupee-cost averaging. Regular investing, however, does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining market scenario.

Invest for Long Term and Not Short Term :

If you decide that your money can work for you over a long period of time, then better compounding works. Consider this: Rs 1,000 invested at 8% earns Rs. 80. Left to compound, the original Rs.1,000, plus accumulated interest, will earn Rs.160 in the 10th year, Rs.507 in the 25th year, and Rs.1,609 in the 40th year — returns of 16%, 51%, and 161%, respectively, on the initial Rs.1,000.

Light Up Your Lives This Diwali

Happy Diwali to you and your family. May this diwali light up your lives with better health, more wealth and even more happiness.

Diwali means a lot of things to different set of people. While Diwali is popularly known as the “festival of lights” and “triumph of good over evil”, a more appropriate significance for this column’s purpose is “the new year of luck and wealth”. The Diwali festival celebrates the victory of good over evil, light over darkness, and knowledge over ignorance, although the actual legends that go with the festival are different in different parts of India.

Diwali also marks the beginning of a financial year. Stock exchanges in India celebrate Diwali as a “muhurat” day: a beginning for the new year!

How about experiencing Diwali this year?

As we clean our homes, let’s clean our minds and intellects too.
As we wear new clothes, let’s also get rid of our loans and debts. Let’s also get rid of unwanted, disturbing habits of anger, jealousy, worry.

If we really experience Diwali we will succeed in invoking (calling upon) Goddess Lakshmi. Her name comes from the word, ‘Laksh’ meaning ‘the GOAL’, experiencing Diwali (as explained above) will help us reach our goals of life – which Goddess Lakshmi stands for.

Two days after Diwali, we Kayasthas, will settle our old account books and begin new ones, simultaneously let us plan to create new income streams. On the spiritual front, let us settle our old karmic accounts, any unpleasant relationships and begin our relationships in a new, positive way.

We are all aware of the pollution caused by firecrackers, but it is Diwali, we need to burn crackers, so why not burn all the crackers of evil characteristics within ourselves – this burning will in fact purify our minds and the environment.

As we exchange sweets let us also exchange meaningful sweet words, good wishes and blessings.

Once again, I wish that the festival of lights stands for a reaffirmation of hope, and creating a new year of health, wealth and happiness for you.

A Story about Planning

Here’s a story. Read and share with me the thing you learnt out of the story.

…There was a country long time ago where the people would change a king every year. The person who would become the king had to agree to a contract that he would be sent to an island after his one year of being a king.

One king finished his term and it was time for him to go to the island and live there. The people dressed him up in expensive clothes and put him on an elephant and took him around the cities to say goodbye to all the people. This was the moment of sadness for all the kings who ruled for one year. After saying farewell, the people took the king on a boat to the remote island and left him there. On their way back, they discovered a ship that had sunk just recently.

They saw a young man who survived by holding on to a floating piece of wood. As they needed a new king, they picked up the young man and took him to their country. They requested him to be the king for a year. First he refused but later he agreed to be a king. People told him about all the rules and regulations and that how he will be sent to an island after one year.

After three days of being a king, he asked the ministers if they could show him the island where all the other kings were sent. They agreed and took him to the island. The island was covered with thick jungles and sounds of vicious animals were heard coming out of them. The king went little bit inside to check. Soon he discovered the dead bodies of all the past kings. He understood that as soon as they were left in the island, the animals had killed them.

The king went back to the country and collected 100 strong workers. He took them to the island and instructed them to clean the jungle, remove all the deadly animals and cut down all the excess trees. He would visit the island every month to see how the work was progressing. In the first month, all the animals were removed and many trees were cut down.

In the second month, the whole island was cleaned out. The king then told the workers to plant gardens in various parts of the island. He also took with him some useful domestic animals like chickens, ducks, birds, goats, cows etc. In the third month, he ordered the workers to build big houses and docking stations for ships. Over the months, the island turned into a beautiful place.
The young king would wear simple clothes and spend very little from his earnings as a king. He sent all the earnings to the island for storage. When nine months passed like this, the king called the ministers and told them: “I know that I have to go to the island after one year, but I would like to go there right now.”

But the ministers didn’t agree to this and said that he has to wait for another 3 months to complete the year. 3 months passed and now it was a full year. The people dressed up the young king and put him on an elephant to take him around the country to say goodbye to others. However, this king is unusually happy to leave the kingdom.

People asked him, “All the other kings used to cry at this moment but you seem to be happy?”

He replied, “Don’t you know what the wise people say? They say that when you came to this world as a baby, you were crying and everyone was laughing. Live such a life that when you die, you will be smiling and everyone around you will be crying. I have lived that life. While all the other kings were lost into the luxuries of the kingdom, I always thought about the future and planned for it. I turned the deadly island into a beautiful abode for me where I can stay peacefully.

How to become an Expert

There is a particularly clever scam,” Link:

Get a list of email addresses of people interested in sports betting. Say you have 32,000. Email 16,000 of them to say that the home team will win this week’s big team, and 16,000 to say the home team will lose. Now, half of the people will have gotten the correct prediction, and the next week, you do the same thing with them. After 5 weeks, you’ll have 1,000 email addresses of people who have seen you pick the winner five times in a row!. Now you pitch your 1-900 number or paid email list subscription to this amazed group.

Do you have an email list of 32000? :)

This Dhanteras, bring home prosperity with Diamonds!

Happy Dhanteras!

Though if you can buy diamonds, you are already prosperous, right! (btw, the title was an ad copy of a diamond brand that I saw in the papers today)

Yes, money makes money and you can use the power of compounding.

That also explains why the gap between the rich and the poor is increasing.

The tradition of buying precious metals during dhanteras is believed to be a sign of good luck.

This Dhanteras, my wishes to you would be to make your own luck