The 88% Solution To All Your Investing Problems (Part 2)

This is the second part of a simple solution to all your investing problems. Check out the part 1 which is about the background to this post. This post is about the thought process that went into making of the 88% solution.

The Thought Process:
Before I tell you about the 88% solution, it would make sense to know the thought process behind:

1. Paralysis by Analysis: There are 300+ insurance schemes, 1000+ mutual fund schemes, 2500+ stock scrips and hundreds of deposit schemes to choose from. Is it possible to analyse them and come to a rational decision? Even if it’s possible, wouldn’t it paralyze your decision making ability? Wouldn’t it be a good idea if I have to choose from a set of 10 products which is being recommended by a person not interested in selling those products?

2. There’s a lot of noise: If you look up to TV, Newspapers for tips, let me pray for you. There are so many conflicting views (and all of them appear confident and right), that you can get confused. I look for information, not views/tips from the Newspapers/TV. But it may be a good idea to close down that noise altogether.

3. Timing the market is impossible: Nobody actually knows whether the market is going up or down. And When! I have made countless attempts at predicting the market and hoping to time my investments. I have failed more often than not. There’s merit in being regular and automate your investments rather than trying to time the markets.

4. 4 Parameters for your investment decision: Before taking an investing decision, you need to look at the likely returns, liquidity, safety and the cost. Figuring out all the four factors can help you take a rational decision.

5. Mutual Funds are more costly than ETFs: Having discovered the abilities of stock experts, I also discovered that we pay a lot of fee for their fund management abilities. I have also learnt that majority of the fund managers under-perform the market indices. And they get paid from our pockets for underperforming the markets!

6. Riding the momentum wave is not for long term: We have everyday reports of top gainers and losers. And there’s a whole lot of day traders riding the wave and appearing to make good money every day. But along the way, we have also seen suicides when the markets crash. To me, it is a zero sum game where you win some and lose some. Eventually balance it out.

7. Discipline/Emotion Control is important: It is easy to get waylaid by emotions of greed and fear. It is important to understand this risk and continue with your investing.

8. Getting Started is the best Investment decision: Yes, we delay getting into money decisions because of a variety of reasons. Like:
• Huh, I’m just 24.
• This financial planning is so non happening thing.
• I have no money.
• I don’t understand the jargon.
These are excuses and not reasons. It prevents you from getting started. But how do I get started, you ask.

You can check out the 88% solution!

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The 88% Solution To All Your Personal Finance Problems (Part 1)

This post is about a simple solution to setup your investments. I call it “The 88% Solution”

Why 88%? Because my hunch says, it works for 88% people. It works 88% of the time!

I have met a lot of young people, who have just started having their own income, get phased out by the in-numerous financial products, persistent financial advisors and the jargon. And all these complexities paralyzes them and prevents them from getting started.

This 88% solution will help young people get started and be 88% right about their investment decisions. That, to me, is a fair start. Along the way, you can customize the solution and make it 100% right for yourself.

I will cover this post in three parts: 1. The Background. 2. The Thought Process and 3. The 88% Solution.

The Background:

During my 20 years of work experience & 4 years of blogging, I have always mulled over doing things in a better way. Be it, work or the topic of my blog, i.e. personal finance.

I took to blogging to learn more about managing money. And to find a simple solution to a complex issue of managing money. I knew about information asymmetry in the industry. I have learnt more about the psychology of money management. I have read up on budgeting tools, personal finance software and learnt more about rupee cost averaging and the magic of compounding. I have researched Mutual Funds, Stocks and thought up the important factors that should go into deciding a product.

In the process, I have also developed my own “Iceberg Theory of Money Management” where I believe that knowledge about money is not enough. You also need to develop skills and attitude towards managing your money.

I also get a lot of emails from you asking me how to get started with investing. I do point out a few things in my reply. But I have been figuring out a detailed reply that might be more useful to you. And this post is that attempt.

There’s a maze of thousands of financial products, advisors, advertisements. The 88% solution will get you started with 5 simple products which nobody bothers to push. Because it has no commissions attached.

Welcome to “The 88% Solution”

Why not 100%? It won’t work for day traders; “get rich quickly” approach guys. Some people will get put off because it doesn’t entail any commission to your friendly advisor/agent.

Now, I know this is beginning to be a daunting thing for a layman who just wants to get started with managing his/her money. The good news is that you can set up your money management in a matter of few hours. And be done with this hassle thing called “personal finance”

Please bear with me and stay tuned for Part 2 (The thought process behind the solution) and Part 3 (The 88% solution)

What Is Your Style Of Stock Investing?

Stock Shastra is an initiative by MoneyWorks4Me and is about the principles of stock investing. The asked me about my style of stock investing and have posted it here

The carnival has very interesting contributions from fellow bloggers and is an delightful compliation of stock investing styles.

Do hop over to the site. Excerpts of my post on the thought process behind the style:

Experts add to the confusion: If you look up to TV, Newspapers for tips, let me pray for you. There are so many conflicting views (and all of them appear confident and right), that I do get confused. Now I look for information, not views/tips from the Newspapers/TV.

Timing the market is impossible: Nobody actually knows whether the market is going up or down. And When! I have made countless attempts at predicting the market and hoping to time my investments. I have failed more often than not.

Mutual Funds are more costly than ETFs: Having discovered the abilities of stock experts, I also discovered that we pay a lot of fee for their fund management abilities. I have also learnt that majority of the fund managers underperform the market indices. And they get paid from our pockets for underperforming the markets!

Riding the momentum wave is not for long term: We have everyday reports of top gainers and losers. And there’s a whole lot of day traders riding the wave and appearing to make good money every day. But along the way, we have also seen suicides when the markets crash. To me, it is a zero sum game where you win some and lose some. Eventually balance it out.

Discipline/Emotion Control is important: It is easy to get waylaid by emotions of greed and fear. So it is important to understand this risk and continue with your investing, come what may. You also need to figure out your own risk appetite and not just ape anybody else.

What’s your style of stock investing? Do share.

Why & How To Invest in Gold

The Economic crisis refuses to leave. First, Goldman Sachs came under the scanner and then, clouds of debt default intensified over Greece.

The Bulls and Bears are having their usual fight, of course. But it leaves most of us in a fright.

In any case, the Governments would continue to print currencies to douse the economic crisis. Thus, as the value of money goes down because of its excessive printing, the value of something that is in limited supply and is valued all over the world will certainly go up.

And that brings us to the topic of gold. The yellow metal has had an excellent run so far this decade but given what lies in store, it is perhaps looking better than ever.

As I see it, making gold a small part of your portfolio is a good idea. Take a look at this detailed article on my personal finance website

Investor Awareness or Branding, What’s the Real Motive?

The story, ostensibly, is on promotion of investor awareness on long-distance trains. But the question is, what’s the motivation for doing this. Is it Investor Awareness or Branding?

Seventeen coaches will be splashed with the images of Nifty, NSE’s flagship index. Inside, important investor awareness messages will be given on panels, with the message being ‘invest carefully’. The campaign will also seek to demystify Nifty 50 through pictographs and comic strips.

The campaign is expected to cover over 250,000 passengers crossing 34 locations across 11 states.

We have received very positive response from companies across the board. Samsung, Hero Honda, BSNL, State Bank of India, Nokia, Life Insurance Corporation, ICICI Bank and HDFC have all evinced interest in advertising on premium trains.

To my mind, it’s the branding that matters to the Companies.

In any case, getting “Do’s & Don’t” messages on train do not really help anyone make better financial decisions. Apart, from the knowledge, skills, attitude and self concepts (remember the Iceberg?)are equally (if not more) important for making a better investor.

Agree?

Business Standard Link

Incentives Structure for Financial Advisors

I was happy that the spat between SEBI and IRDA would highlight the skewed incentive structure of the ULIPs. But I am having second thoughts.

The real issue should not be the distribution cost (read commissions) but should be a fair customer experience. Let me explain with a few examples.

The fizz water is sold by stars like Ranbir Kapoor, Amir Khan, SRK, etc. The cost of a bottle of coke would not be more than a Rupee. So if it is being sold at Rs 10/- per bottle, then the Agent( SRK, AK, RK, etc) is pocketing 80-90%. Isn’t that too much? Also read this, Good For You Products Are Not in Demand

The difference, to my mind, is instead of calling them Agents, we call them Brand Ambassadors!!

The distribution costs is an important element of all industries in some way or the other. The 4 P’s of Marketing, as we all know, is the combination of product, price, place (distribution), and promotion. Distribution is all about getting the product to the customer and involves costs as per the needs of the industry.

So, the question is, Why are we making such noise about the incentive structure of the Agents?

The answer is that the low skill levels of the Agents result in a lot of mis-selling and thereby a low customer experience.

Conclusions:
That’s why, let me revisit my opinion on this issue. Instead of cribbing over the incentives structure, we should press hard for enhancing the knowledge, skills of the financial advisors and ensuring that they provide a satisfactory customer experience to deserve what they get as commissions.

Let me take an example. I refused a kick back from an Agent because that Agent was providing me a lot of value in terms of professional advice and service.

What about you? Would you care for how much the Agent is getting, or would you prefer to worry about how much the Agent is helping you with your money matters?

Somewhere along the way, we need to take responsibility for ourselves rather than cribbing about commissions, mis-selling, etc. What do you think?

“Good For You” Health Products Are Not In Demand

Today’s Economic Times has a report on how despite health and wellness being the most talked-about fad, there is no dip in demand for sugary or fried,salty foods. The report says that, while the consumer is showing more trends of being health and wellness conscious and there certainly is a lot of talk, she is not walking the talk that much.

This really isn’t surprising. In fact the report gives it away if you read the entire report. Read this:

So,while PepsiCo talks about portfolio transformation to good for you products and is pulling out sugary drinks from schools,and has Tropicana juices,Gatorade sports drink and Nimbooz nimbu pani in its portfolio,the maximum marketing and ad spends of its roughly Rs 100-crore ad spends are directed to its fizzy drinks Pepsi,Mountain Dew,7-Up and Mirinda

To my mind the obvious reason is that the companies have a huge ad spend on bottled cola, fries and sugared water. I guess the operating margins would be higher for them with such products.

The Marketers crib that the consumer is not walking the talk when it comes to health food. But I think the guys who care about their health would stick to unadulterated, simple, home made food. And this means no profits for the big, well paid Marketers of the big companies.

The reason the report interests me is that a similar thing happens in the financial services industry. The “Good for You” financial products (like ETF) is being talked about, but nobody is walking the talk!

The “Good for You” products are not pushed by financial advisors who have more interest in making commission based recommendations.

Would you agree?