Incomplete Knowledge Is Dangerous; Ignorance is Bliss

The TOI has an article today where it says,

Out of the 300-odd diversified equity funds, only one has managed to beat key indices such as sensex and nifty. But four index-based funds have made it to the top 10 list, giving double-digit returns for the month.

In the past, I have been blinded by such reports and come to the conclusion that it’s better to buy index funds and ETFs rather than the actively managed mutual funds. Here are few data and pointers that say that it doesn’t really work like that in India.

  • The article has taken a view of a month’s performance and insinuates that index funds are good. It doesn’t talk about, say, three year performance.
  • The top index fund/etf on a 3 year return basis returned 10.66% as per this data
  • The top equity diversified mutual fund on a similar 3 yr return basis gave a 21.83%. (Source)
  • There are 74 mutual funds out of 248 (equity diversified funds) that have exceeded 10.66% as in point 2 above.
  • There is wide variation in the index funds returns despite them tracking the index.
  • The cost too is not as low as in the US.
  • The US experience is different.
  • In the US, John Bogle has preached the virtues of low-cost indexing since the 70s and his Vanguard Group Inc. finally unseated Fidelity as the largest US mutual-fund company by assets. They offer huge cost advantages and their market are supposed to be more market efficient.

So, would you invest in a actively managed mutual fund or an index? Or choose “Ignorance is bliss” :)

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Mis-selling Starts With The CEOs

Jayant Pai writes about two comments made by the CEOs on TV.

1. CEO 1 said that his was the only fund which was currently available at Rs. 10 per unit and hence investors could get attracted to it.

2. CEO 2 said that ULIPs was a “Money Spinner” earlier but had now ceased to be so. That is why they had discontinued it.

It’s a clear case of misrepresentation and lack of customer focus being doled out by the CEOs on TV channels.

But how many people can see through this misrepresentation? Isn’t this a conflict when the CEOs should focus on improved financial awareness among their customers and not try to obfuscate?

In a different situation, like in a conference discussing financial inclusion or financial awareness topics, the same CEOs would wax eloquent on their initiatives in educating the customer.

I wonder how the CEOs would respond when they are confronted with their contradictory thoughts!

This reminds me of the famous concept of cognitive dissonance:

[Source]In a classic experiment, The 3 Christs of Ypsilanti, psychiatrist Milton Rokeach assembled three patients who each believed they were Jesus Christ. He wondered if confronting them with each other’s conflicting claims would create enough cognitive dissonance to produce a psychiatric breakthrough. Unfortunately, this effort did not lessen the patients’ delusions. The three Christs maintained their claim on their divine identity.

The above case say that, when it comes to cognitive dissonance, we believe what we want to believe. And even in the face of persuasive evidence, we hold fast to beliefs that may in fact have no basis in reality.

My point of sharing this is that we (I and you) are able to recognize the cognitive dissonance in the CEOs (and within us too!) and be able to take sound decisions.

Why & How To Invest in Gold

The Economic crisis refuses to leave. First, Goldman Sachs came under the scanner and then, clouds of debt default intensified over Greece.

The Bulls and Bears are having their usual fight, of course. But it leaves most of us in a fright.

In any case, the Governments would continue to print currencies to douse the economic crisis. Thus, as the value of money goes down because of its excessive printing, the value of something that is in limited supply and is valued all over the world will certainly go up.

And that brings us to the topic of gold. The yellow metal has had an excellent run so far this decade but given what lies in store, it is perhaps looking better than ever.

As I see it, making gold a small part of your portfolio is a good idea. Take a look at this detailed article on my personal finance website

When Will Index Funds Become Popular?

Even though Index funds is not a glamorous & sexy financial product, they make more sense for an investment horizon of 15 years and more. This is because they normally beat actively managed funds due to the lower fee structure. Besides, it gets increasingly difficult to beat the market on a regular basis year after year for a long period of time.

That’s why it’s interesting to see IDBI Bank announcing that they would launch only index funds.

Even Motilal Oswal, which recently got approval to start an asset management business, has filed for a Nifty-based ETF. The underlying index for this is MOSt 50 index, fundamentally an enhanced index based on the S&P CNX Nifty index.

Do you want to know more about these index funds? Or do you want to share what you know? Your comments are welcome.

In the meantime, you can check this section on ETF