How many Stocks do you have in your Portfolio?

We should have between 15 & 20 stocks in our portfolio. The deciding factors are:
1. The need for diversification across sectors,
2. The number of Stocks you could reasonably monitor regularly

The above is what the experts keep advising. The truth in the above statement dawned on me only after I lost one big opportunity. And, I want to share this experience with you.

As I shared with you in my last post, I had, slowly but surely, progressed to some kind of ‘Stock Analysis’. As often happens, people close to you start seeking advice. I would avoid dispensing any advice; but if pestered, I would recommend some of the safe, long-term stocks; viz. Torrent Power, Adani Power, Cairn India, ABCL, etc. or Tata Motors to those with more risk appetite.

Sometime around Jan, 2010 I noticed that I was ‘Voluntarily’ dispensing advice. I was advising my friends (And, almost anybody I knew!!) to put-in money in Gujarat Fluorochemicals & Liberty Phosphate. I almost forced one of my subordinates to buy into GUJFLO.

No surprises. Both the shares did very well in the next six months. I guess I was so sure of my analysis that I wanted all the people close to me to take advantage. I am still not as matured in Stock Selection as to confidently say that I will strike a GUJFLO at regular intervals. But at that time, I had identified the opportunity & I was more than 100% sure.

However, the story is not over yet. Where was the impact on my portfolio? It was hardly there. It was then that it dawned on me that I was having far too many stocks in my portfolio & had arrogantly (Or, ignorantly?) ignored the advice of all the experts. While I had invested a reasonable sum (to my mind!) in absolute terms which was close to what I had decided for each Stock, in late 2008 when I had started investing. My Portfolio had run-up by then, and in terms of percentage I had only put in ~2% in GUJFLO (In which I was more confident!!); and only ~5% in LIBPHO. No wonder there was little impact on my Portfolio.

I recount the following advice of experts in regard to size of Portfolio:
1. Our exposure in any one share should be between 4 – 20% of our total Equity Exposure.
2. The Portfolio should not have more than 20 Stocks
3. One should have a core portfolio wherein the Stocks may be for keeps.

Despite the realisation of the above Truths, I am still far from the ideal Portfolio (I am having ~40 Stocks.) I am having some trouble trimming down to the recommended number. I have realised, why, and I am still working on resolving it. I will share this wisdom in my next blog.

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Evolution of my Stock Investing Strategy

When I started investing, the first thing that struck me was the ease with which you could operate the Demat account. Investors who have been around when you invested only in the Physical Format of the shares would relate to this.

The other revolution is in the amount of data available for analysis. I was reading the Company History, the Annual Report and the Charts in the companies I would be interested in. Getting to know the company gave me some confidence to invest in the company.

I was soon to evolve a very simple strategy for stock selection; viz.
Step I: Study the Company History & about the Quality of Management, and
Step II: Identify the Shares that have fallen the most since the market had gone into a free fall

Elementary! Bull..! Hogwash! You could say that. But, it indeed worked. The shares that were falling the most were those in which FII holding was the highest. Also, there was no fundamental reason for such a huge correction in India. It was just a free fall driven by withdrawals by FIIs. Experts were crying themselves hoarse that there is nothing wrong with the Indian economy.

I guess, I was just thinking very simple; what goes up, comes down; and vice versa. Anyway, the Strategy evolved quite by serendipity. And like most things beautiful, soon outlived its utility. It was not based on any enduring truth. Soon the markets had found the bottom, and then the same analysis was not yielding any fresh ideas. Just wait; this one is for keeps. We must keep evolving the strategies, but not get wedded to them. We should apply them as and when they are applicable, and move on to the next. It does mean we have to continuously devise new strategies to match the new situations.

Purists may say that it is not strategy; it is only a tactic or an idea. You may choose the word you like. I am OK with it.

Flashback; again to my story. It was just plain logic that told me to stagger my investments. It was much later that I was to learn words like SIP, STP & Rupee Cost Averaging. They are good concepts & you should make them a part of yourself. Try to live (invest!) according to the diktat of the concept of Rupee Cost Averaging. If you feel like rushing into a buy/sell, cry, “Patience!”

Somewhere along the line, I started doing the Futures. I have never been a speculator and I detest gambling, which please note. I was doing it only to understand the instrument and only to understand how the Nifty works, I convinced myself. I would make a few hundred Rupees, lose a few. Till one day, when I was left holding two Nifty’s. That was when the Election results came out & the Index zoomed. I lost big. But, was it not miniscule compared to what I had made? I just tried to explain it to myself.

Again, this is an important lesson. Playing with Margin Instruments; viz. Futures, Options, etc. is not for amateurs. They are meant for professionals whose lives depend on the Stock Market. Ditto, for Commodities Market. Do not dabble in markets or in margin instruments which you do not understand enough.

I have met persons who get carried away thinking that they can make a few hundred or a few thousand everyday (Like buying & selling the Shares the same day!!). Normally, it does not take very long for them to realise that it is not so easy. No problem in that. Except that, such an experience puts them off the Stock Market. Now, that is not a good outcome.

I am a firm believer that an Investor whose Primary Source of Income is NOT the Stock Market, must only look for Medium or Long Term Stock Ideas.

Let me admit here, that I do know of individuals who are purely Short Term. Apparently, they are making money, though I am not sure. They are very nimble and react fast, and are constantly working on Tips. They may be very young & may have spent considerable time in the Market already. However, I firmly believe that for every one person making money in this manner, there will be more than one person who is losing money. It will be a very miniscule minority having that knack to make money with this Strategy.

Flashback; again to my story. I was running out of ideas, but luckily for me I had started doing some reading. I was learning that before Investing one should do ‘Fundamental’ research. I was soon to progress into studying the Balance Sheet & the P&L accounts. I started foraging data for Analysis & it soon took me to a lot of Sources of Information; viz. ET, Rediff money, Moneycontrol, etc. Thereafter, it was easy to progress to studying the Profitability Ratios, from there to Leverage Ratios, and further on to Valuation. The Knowledge of Financial Terms slowly started converting into pearls of wisdom. But, of course, it is an ongoing journey. Somewhere along, I realised the wealth of information available on the web-sites of companies. I also realised the importance of learning about the management team.

Finally, it seemed I was zeroing on to an enduring Strategy. The world of Stock Investing look much more orderly once you get on with Fundamental Analysis of Stocks. I seem to be headed in the right direction. While, the search for that great (Short Term) Strategy/Tactics/Idea that I could apply in some niche at some opportune time continues!!!

Rediscovering The Stock Market

After my experience in Stock Investing in 1994, I went as far away from Stock Investing as you could imagine. But, do not think I was letting my money rest in my Savings Account. I was doing better. I was on to my own business!! Right through 1997 to 2004 I was into my manufacturing/exporting business. It was a bitter-sweet entrepreneurial experience with loads of learning.

The long & short of it was that I restarted my life from scratch in 2004. Back to having a regular job, I started reconstructing my life brick by brick. Sometime during late 2006 I got an introduction into a new business; that of recruiting skilled workers for foreign companies. I was only in a niche segment, but the business was good. Let me remind you that this business happened to me quite by accident. I cannot take much credit for having established it.

However, like all good things, it did not last long. The world was soon to go into the recession due to the sub-prime crisis in the US (early 2008). Unemployment rates in the developed economies shot-up & Governments started closing the doors on foreign workers. It put paid to my dreams of making it big. Nevertheless, after a long time I had some spare cash.

I do not quite remember how & when my Demat account got opened. It was definitely a non-event. I got a marketing call & I just had to evince interest. God-send, you could say. I vaguely remember that it happened sometime in May – June, 2008.

I have been an avid reader of the newspaper and I started reading the Business pages with more interest. I used to read it earlier as well, but it was more detached. The market was in correction mode & I started watching it closely. God-send, you would repeat. I agree. The timing for entry into the market could not be any better. You could not go wrong, even if you wanted to!! Roger, once again.

Nevertheless, you will have to give credit to me for having the guts, without having the requisite knowledge. I did not quite know what it was to be a ‘Contrarian’. I had also not been introduced to the concept of ‘Asset Allocation’. I would say that I knew the tools of Equity Analysis but they were in the realm of knowledge only. They were not yet a part of me. They had not transformed into my ‘wisdom’.

It was only after reading enough & watching the stock market till September, 2008 that I made my re-entry into the Stock Market.

I am encouraged to share the evolution of my Stock Investing Strategy in my next post.

Sumant Kant Sahai

Competencies Required to Invest in Stock Markets

In a social gathering, you can win a few brownie points for letting people know that you invest in stocks. Well, cool and sexy people dabble in stock markets, na!

Some people start paying a lot of attention on me when they come to know that I have invested in stocks. But the same people start avoiding me when I actually tell them the details of my stock investments.

The majority of my stock investments have been done 7 years ago. In 7 different stocks. I keep a tab on what’s happening in those 7 companies and review them after every 7 months (Actually 3 months, but I got carried away with the 7s)

Quite boring, no!

That’s one reason I don’t blog much on Stocks or Investing Gyaan :)

Having said that, I want to share a few things that may help you get started with your stock market investment journey. However this post is not for day traders and those who believe that they can get rich quick with the help of stocks. It is for those who want to get the best returns possible with a long term perspective.

The Idea
Yesterday, I bothered Gautam Ghosh (The HR Guru) with a question on Money “Competencies”.

My question:
What would be the attitude, motives, values competencies for effective money management? (Background: Competency is the underlying characteristic of an individual that causes superior performance on any specific task, function , job or role.)

Gautam pointed me to a few areas like risk taking ability, ability to analyse opportunities, long term orientation, etc. Thanks Gautam.

The big learning was that just having adequate knowledge is not enough to manage your money. You also need to be aware of your attitudes, values, motives, self confidence before you swim around in the deep waters of stock markets.

Let’s take one at a time.
Knowledge: You don’t need to fully understand the capital market or portfolio management theory to get started. Start with reading about the 5 companies where you want to be the shareholder. I am tempted to recommend 7 companies but you can start with as many as you can handle. From 1-10. Let’s keep a cap at 10.
As you read about them, you’ll learn a few jargons along the way like EPS, PE Ratio, etc. Don’t be finicky about learning everything as if you have to answer a test paper. Don’t worry, it’s not rocket science but plain simple common sense!

In a few months, you’d be raring to invest in a few of them. Go by your instinct and go for it. Ask around for tips and you’ll be more befuddled than before!

Attitude: Many say that the stock market is a zero sum game where some people make money and some make losses. I guess, it’s true on a day to day basis. But on a longer term, good stocks help you make more money than others. Period.

So decide for yourself that whether you’ll be able to stay positive during the downturns. If the slightest tremors on the stock market have an impact on your own heart, it’s better you stay away. It’s not for the faint hearted, dear.

Skills: Skills normally require knowledge, attitude and practice. Infact if you have the knowledge and the attitude, skill automatically comes in.

It’s like if you have love and compassion, peace/harmony/happiness naturally follows in!!

The few skills I can think of are: Analytical skills, Operating the trading account/demat account and monitoring them. Simple, no?

A few more things like your confidence level, motives and value systems also contribute to your money skills.

Infact, your money competencies are a combination of your knowledge, skills, attitude and your overall orientation (Values/Motives/Confidence)

To my mind, it’s important to be aware of your own realities about the above competencies before you start investing in stocks.

Investing in stocks may be a good choice for some people. However, many people prefer currency trading over stocks since the market is open 24 hours.

Would you agree? Want to share your experience of investing in stocks?