We should have between 15 & 20 stocks in our portfolio. The deciding factors are:
1. The need for diversification across sectors,
2. The number of Stocks you could reasonably monitor regularly
The above is what the experts keep advising. The truth in the above statement dawned on me only after I lost one big opportunity. And, I want to share this experience with you.
As I shared with you in my last post, I had, slowly but surely, progressed to some kind of ‘Stock Analysis’. As often happens, people close to you start seeking advice. I would avoid dispensing any advice; but if pestered, I would recommend some of the safe, long-term stocks; viz. Torrent Power, Adani Power, Cairn India, ABCL, etc. or Tata Motors to those with more risk appetite.
Sometime around Jan, 2010 I noticed that I was ‘Voluntarily’ dispensing advice. I was advising my friends (And, almost anybody I knew!!) to put-in money in Gujarat Fluorochemicals & Liberty Phosphate. I almost forced one of my subordinates to buy into GUJFLO.
No surprises. Both the shares did very well in the next six months. I guess I was so sure of my analysis that I wanted all the people close to me to take advantage. I am still not as matured in Stock Selection as to confidently say that I will strike a GUJFLO at regular intervals. But at that time, I had identified the opportunity & I was more than 100% sure.
However, the story is not over yet. Where was the impact on my portfolio? It was hardly there. It was then that it dawned on me that I was having far too many stocks in my portfolio & had arrogantly (Or, ignorantly?) ignored the advice of all the experts. While I had invested a reasonable sum (to my mind!) in absolute terms which was close to what I had decided for each Stock, in late 2008 when I had started investing. My Portfolio had run-up by then, and in terms of percentage I had only put in ~2% in GUJFLO (In which I was more confident!!); and only ~5% in LIBPHO. No wonder there was little impact on my Portfolio.
I recount the following advice of experts in regard to size of Portfolio:
1. Our exposure in any one share should be between 4 – 20% of our total Equity Exposure.
2. The Portfolio should not have more than 20 Stocks
3. One should have a core portfolio wherein the Stocks may be for keeps.
Despite the realisation of the above Truths, I am still far from the ideal Portfolio (I am having ~40 Stocks.) I am having some trouble trimming down to the recommended number. I have realised, why, and I am still working on resolving it. I will share this wisdom in my next blog.
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